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Gov. Perry Leading President Obama in New Poll

It's early, but there's more good polling news for the Perry campaign.
Screenshot of campaign video by Jobs for Iowa PAC
It's early, but there's more good polling news for the Perry campaign.

Okay, look, the KUT Newsblog knows there is a new poll every day. And we also know how poorly these more-than-a-year-out polls predict eventual outcomes.

But today's poll shows us something interesting, so we're gonna tell you about it: This is the first time we've seen Governor Rick Perry beatingPresident Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup.

The poll by Rasmussen has Perry up 44 percent to 41 percent over Obama. Statistically, it's an even race since the survey's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Mitt Romney trails the President 43 percent to 39 percent.  A generic GOP candidate fairs the best, beating the President 48 percent to 40 percent.

Again, more than a year out, these polls are not very accurate. Here's a rundown of how several Gallup Polls predicted the Presidential race:

  • In August 1999, Texas Gov. George W. Bush led Vice President Al Gore by 55 percent to 41 percent in a Gallup poll. That race ended up in a virtual dead heat, with Gore ultimately winning slightly more of the national popular vote than Bush.
  • In August 1995, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole was slightly ahead of President Bill Clinton in a Gallup poll, 48 percent to 46 percent. On Election Day in 1996, Clinton beat Dole by eight points.
  • In August 1983, President Ronald Reagan was ahead of Democrat Walter Mondale by only one point, 44 percent to 43 percent. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a 59 percent to 41 percent landslide in the November 1984 election.
  • In August 1979, incumbent President Jimmy Carter was tied with former California Gov. Reagan -- each getting 45 percent of the vote. Reagan ultimately defeated Carter by 10 points.
Ben Philpott is the Managing Editor for KUT. Got a tip? Email him at Follow him on Twitter @BenPhilpottKUT.
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