Texas is a Red state. All things being equal, if two candidates have equal access to money and equal get out the vote efforts, the Republican is going to be favored and might even win by double digits.
The 2014 race for Texas Attorney General is setting up to be a pure representation of that Republican advantage.
The GOP nominee, State Senator Ken Paxton, has refused to speak to the press, has made almost no public campaign appearances. He has admitted to violating state securities law, and hasn't released a campaign ad since his GOP primary. And yet, recent polls have him 20 points ahead of Democrat Sam Houston.
Paxton has two things going for him in this race: he's running as a Republican and Tea Party champion Ted Cruz likes him.
Democrat Sam Houston does have an easy to remember name. He's gotten endorsements from all of the state's major newspapers. And he's got an opponent who may have more legal troubles ahead after the election. An investigation into whether or not a grand jury should be convened to look into Paxton's rule breaking was put on hold until after the election.
Houston has tried to make Paxton's legal issues prominent in this race. The Houston campaign created the website KenPaxtonBrokeTheLaw.com and released video as well.
But again, this is a Red state. And so far, even admitting to breaking the law isn't expected to hurt the Republican's chances of becoming the state's lawyer.