November’s elections may seem far away, but the 2026 midterms are very much in full swing. With Republicans and Democrats releasing ads targeting their opponents and asking for campaign donations.
In fact, early voting for the March party primaries in Texas begins on Feb. 17. That’s just a month away. That’s when more than 18 million Texans will be able to decide who will go on to the next round and represent their party on the ballot in November.
But, historically, only a few million of those voters ever cast a ballot in the primaries. Take the last midterm election, in 2022. Only 3 million Texans cast ballots in the party primaries. That was just 17% percent of the registered voters at the time.
This low participation has a huge impact on shaping the political landscape of the Lone Star State.
League of Women Voters of Texas President Joyce LeBombard says the low turnout is likely due to two things.
“People live very busy lives, they have multiple jobs, kids, just so many things,” LeBombard said. And she thinks voters “don’t understand how important they are.”
So who are the mighty few who are voting, and ultimately determining which candidates make it to the ballot in November?
Brent Boyea, who teaches American politics at UT Arlington, says it’s likely the, “more conservative Republicans, the more liberal progressive Democrats.”
He says the ultra-political voters are just more involved year-round and are often rallying others to get out and vote, instead of needing to be told when an election is near – which ultimately has an impact on which candidate makes it to the general election.
“You’re seeing MAGA folks, progressive folks on the left, if they’re dominant in their areas in terms of voting, they’re gonna see people running that reflect those views more often than not,” Boyea said.
But Boyea says that tends to lead to a representative that doesn’t reflect what the majority of Texans want.
“The typical voter is still a moderate voter – moderate Republican, moderate Democrat, or not even that, it’s a moderate voter that maybe doesn’t even identify with either of those two parties,” Boyea said.
LeBombard says that added with “how highly gerrymandered Texas is” makes it where several of the races across the state are “decided during the primaries.”
All of this raises the stakes even higher for the primary election.
Bottom line: If Texans skip voting in the March primaries this year, they may be giving up the only real say they’ll have in choosing who represents them.
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