A new study released this week aims to put a stop to the rumors swirling about a potential serial killer in Austin. Researchers from Texas State University in collaboration with the Austin Police Department found no evidence of a serial murderer during a review of nearly 200 cases.
While the idea of a Rainey Street Ripper has been a popular conspiracy on social media, the study found that alcohol consumption and the proximity of bars to the shore of Lady Bird Lake are the bigger contributing factors in the reported deaths.
How did the serial killer rumor start?
Theories about lake drownings being linked to a serial killer — dubbed by some online commenters as the "Rainey Street Ripper" — can be traced to early 2023.
Rumors surfaced after Jason John, 30, and Jonathan Honey, 33, went missing weeks apart from each other in 2023. Both had been on Rainey Street and disappeared. Their bodies were later found in the lake.
But the common factor in both of those cases was alcohol and proximity to the lake. The autopsy reports found no major abrasions or injuries consistent with being attacked.
The shift of people visiting Rainey Street is also a contributing factor.
Rainey Street used to be a quiet neighborhood, but it is now lined with bars, apartments and hotels that all back up to Lady Bird Lake and the Ann and Roy Butler Hike and Bike Trail. More people, means higher risk of exposure to drownings.
From 2022 to 2024, 36 drownings in Lady Bird Lake were reported, further fueling rumors, according to the report.
At the same time, Austin Police said the number of bodies pulled from the lake that would fit the targeted group of victims near Rainey Street remained relatively stable. Over the 22-year study period, eight cases occurred near the Rainey Street District, which is an average of about one every 32 months. The report did not find a pattern of clustering, or hotspots where similar criminal activity appeared in a space or time.
Sgt. Nathan Sexton with APD's homicide unit said all of the drowning deaths in the Rainey Street area were categorized as alcohol-, drug-, mental illness- or homelessness-related.
“Usually it was one of those,” Sexton said. “If it wasn’t alcohol, there was a drug found in their system that impaired them.”
Looking for a pattern in the deaths
Kim Rossmo is a professor in the School of Criminal Justice and Criminology at Texas State University and a retired detective inspector from the Vancouver Police Department in Canada.
He is one of three authors of the study who looked at nearly 200 Lady Bird Lake drownings from 2004 to 2025. The group found no direct evidence of a serial killer or indirect warning signs that one exists.
“Serial murder is very rare,” Rossmo said. “The odds of becoming a victim are on a level of being struck by lightning… It does happen, but it doesn’t happen often."
Rossmo said serial murderers usually follow a pattern that can link crimes, such as proximity, time, and place. The victims' genders and ages can also be part of a pattern.
But Rossmo said the evidence the researchers looked at didn’t present any patterns consistent with age, gender or place. He said there was a pattern of young men drowning in the lake but that mirrored drowning cases across the state.
A separate study of 7,737 unintentional drownings in Texas over more than two decades found 78% of victims to be male. Most of them were between the ages of 22 and 44, and alcohol and drugs played a key role in many of their deaths.
“We know men are bigger risk takers than women are,” he said. “So that is hardly a surprise. It's typical and not an indicator of a serial killer with particular sex preferences.”
The cause of death in the a majority of cases reviewed was accidental drowning, Sexton said.
Homicidal drownings are extremely rare, the researchers said, and serial murderers almost never drown their victims.
Rossmo said the bottom line is water and alcohol don’t mix.
“We don’t have a serial killer stalking the shores of Lady Bird Lake,” he said. “But we do have a drowning problem.”
Preventing more deaths by the water
Drowning is an issue the city of Austin has worked to address.
In 2023, the city committed $1 million to improve safety near Rainey Street, including installing new lighting, fencing, sidewalks and cameras. A first responders unit has also been stationed at the south end of the area to respond to emergency needs and help monitor the trailhead.
Council Member Zo Qadri, who represents the area, has pushed for these efforts.
"This wasn’t just about policy—it was about people," Qadri said in a written statement. "Our community deserved real, immediate action and not more delay. When lives are at stake, we have a responsibility to respond with urgency."
