Temperatures in Austin could reach into the triple digits this weekend, according to current forecasts. Since record keeping began in 1898, there have been only six years when the city has hit the hundreds earlier, and Austinites are worried the early heat could be a harbinger of yet another scorching summer.
The pattern bringing heat to the region looks familiar: Meteorologists say a high pressure system or “heat dome” that has been parked over Mexico is pushing up into Texas and colliding with humid air to bring forecasted heat indexes as high as 110 in Austin by Sunday.
Those are similar atmospheric conditions to what the region faced last June, when a heat wave gripped the state, eventually bringing a record-breaking heat index of 118 on June 22.
“It’s kind of a similar setup, but a bit different in that we’re not expecting that intense a temperature,” Emily Heller, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, said.
Still, Heller cautioned people to be careful. Early season heat waves are often more dangerous as peoples’ bodies have not had time to acclimatize to higher temperatures. People may also not prepare for the heat as well as they would later in the summer.
“We’re just telling people to drink plenty of water, take breaks from the sun, check on your relatives and neighbors,” Heller said. “Just try to stay indoors during the hottest part of the day.”
Hotter earlier
Heat is coming earlier in the year as greenhouse gasses, released by the burning of fossil fuels, warm the earth's atmosphere.
Austin has seen triple digits in May in only eight years since records started in 1898. Five of those instances happened this century.
Austin has also seen a dramatic jump in the annual number of triple-digit days since 2000. A recent report from the state climatologist’s office expects that trend to continue as the climate warms.
Those facts, coupled with the back-to-back scorching summers Austin has endured, have many people worried.
It's not a sure thing, Heller said, but “looking at our seasonal forecast, we are expecting warmer than normal temperatures.”
One way early spring heat can contribute to hotter temperatures later in the year is by drying out the soil. That leaves it ready to absorb more heat as summer progresses.
If that heat continues with no rainfall, it can even create drought and a heat feedback loop that becomes self reinforcing, bringing long stretches of triple-digit highs and low humidity.
And that’s exactly what Austin saw last year.
