After early spring heat wave, forecasters predict a hotter than average summer in Austin

After a springtime of breezy, cool mornings and dry air, a heat wave hit Austin like a train last week. Those triple-digit highs and thick humid days are likely a taste of things to come, as Central Texas moves closer to what are typically its hottest months of the year.

But, forecasters say, that doesn’t mean the summer will bring a repeat of record-breaking heat waves like the one in 2023 that delivered 45 days in a row of triple-digit highs.

“The signals that I'm seeing right now don't call for a summer as hot as 2023,” Mack Morris, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office said. “However, it will be warmer than normal. It will be hot.”

Morris — who recently presented the seasonal outlook for June, July and August — said rain will be a deciding factor in how quickly things heat up.

Austin is currently about 4 inches below average rainfall for the year, and the recent heat wave served to further dry the soil.

“With continued drought conditions, it doesn't really take long to dry the soils out in the month of June,” Morris said. “With drier soils, temperatures usually heat up a lot faster.”

But, forecasters say, there could be some rain ahead — including next Sunday and Monday.

“May is, in Austin, typically the wettest month for the year,” Mary Wasson, a meteorologist for the San Antonio Express-News and the Houston Chronicle said. “We [could] get a quick 5-inch rain total, and that would put us where we should be for the month and kind of eat away at the deficit for the year.”

If we do get more rain, Morris said, it should keep triple digits at bay a little longer. But that could also increase humidity, leading to a higher “feels-like” temperature.

Rain becomes increasingly less likely in the summer.

“We're not way into those summertime hot and dry days yet,” Morris said. “But I do think we aren't going to see any more mornings in the 40s and 50s.”