Texas Republicans appear to be shifting their mindset on how they want border and immigration enforcement to be handled in light of the week’s news of a crackdown and two deadly shootings in Minnesota.
But the concern and skepticism about the aggressive tactics comes as polls show the midterms won’t fare well for the GOP nationwide.
“Normally these midterms are like a political earthquake, but this is an earthquake that spawned a tsunami,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
Immigration being the reason Republicans are looking to have a lackluster performance in the midterms is not normal, definitely not under President Donald Trump.
“Immigration has always been the strong suit of the president. He’s always had high approval on immigration,” said Sergio Garcia-Rios, an assistant professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and associate director for the Center for the Study of Race and Democracy.
Losing on that issue could cause a flip in how well the GOP does among the hispanic community, especially in South Texas – including the Rio Grande Valley, where Republicans had managed to flip several counties since the 2016 presidential election.
“While these Latinos are in the communities that are mostly affected by immigration and by cartels, they want strong borders. They want secure communities. They want safety, but they don’t want their friends and families being deported,” Garcia-Rios said.
Both Rottinghaus and Garcia-Rios believe this is why Gov. Greg Abbott is in headlines saying the White House needs to “recalibrate” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s tactics.
Abbott said that Monday, while speaking with conservative radio talk show host Mark Davis. He specifically said the recalibration should also mean ICE refocusing on the removal of dangerous undocumented immigrants, “without causing all the kinds of problems and fighting in communities that they are experiencing right now.”
He wants ICE to be respected again, at least by independents and Republicans.
The comments come after recent events around immigration enforcement in Minnesota — like the deaths of two U.S. citizens and detention of a 5-year-old boy at an ICE facility in Texas — that have intensified the situation.
Rottinghaus says that’s because “these images and the actions, although awful in so many ways, are problematic for Republicans and give Democrats a chance to show why they have been in opposition to this from the start.”
Texas is a state that’s long been one of Trump’s most enthusiastic partners on immigration – and that isn’t stopping.
In fact, Garcia-Rios says the growing attitude towards ICE and Border Patrol enforcement isn’t “necessarily a shift. It’s an adjustment.”
All the top members of the Texas GOP seem to be making that same slight pivot. Take comments this week from Texas’ U.S. senators, for example.
Sen. John Cornyn went on “The Mark Davis Show” a day after Abbott’s remarks and said “I think it’s a good idea to deescalate.”
Sen. Ted Cruz, on his The Verdict podcast, said, “Escalating the rhetoric doesn’t help and it actually loses credibility. So I would encourage the administration to be more measured.”
Texas Congressman Michael McCaul took to social media and called for investigations into the shooting death of Alex Pretti over the weekend.
But like Garcia-Rios said, this is an adjustment and not a shift, and the interviews also include comments that still showcase Republican support for immigration officers.
For instance, Cruz placed blame on Pretti while talking on his podcast saying, “he could have chosen to go there and not bring a firearm.”
Cornyn, on “The Mark Davis Show” said, “The First Amendment is important, the right to peacefully demonstrate. But we’ve seen some of these protesters in Minneapolis and elsewhere cross a line they should not cross, which is interfering with law enforcement activity.”
So why the shift in some of this messaging? Garcia-Rios thinks the talk of deescalation is a sign that these issues have reached another level — one Texas Republicans feel the need to address this election year, while still being tough on immigration and deportation.
“It’s always been politicized for many years, but it’s now becoming electoral. And I think that’s where the adjustment is happening.”
Rottinghaus says, “Republican politicians are definitely seeing that the imagery coming out of places like Minnesota are problematic and definitely are liabilities in a political sense.”
More broadly, Both Garcia-Rios and Rottinghaus believe any change in tone right now likely isn’t the result of a change of heart – but rather, the realization that the immigration issue isn’t going away.
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