Despite breaking Travis County’s all-time voter turnout record on the first day of early voting this year, overall participation in this year’s election ultimately fell short of 2020 levels by more than 26,000 votes.
Turnout this year was lower even though Travis County has seen significant population growth since 2020. Almost 613,000 people voted in the 2020 election, just over 71% of registered voters. This year, the turnout dropped to 586,185 votes, around 63% of registered voters.
Percentage wise, this year’s voter turnout was also lower than in the 2016 election, when just over 65% of registered voters cast their ballots.
Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said the lower numbers may stem from a sense of voter apathy.
“Since Texas is a one-party state and has been for a long time, many Democratic voters have simply given up," Rottinghaus said. "They don’t come to vote because they don’t think their vote matters. There’s a mindset among voters that they want to make sure their vote counts. And if it feels like it doesn’t in a very red state, Democratic voters will simply stay home.”
Rottinghaus also said new residents and young voters might not be showing up to the polls.
“Travis County is a place that attracts young voters and the new registrants are a lot less likely to vote,” he said. “So although the number of voters is increasing, the turnout is not because first-time voters, new to Texas voters, younger voters are just less likely to turn out in general.”
Travis County has also consistently voted more red in recent elections.
In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential races, around 27% of Travis County voters supported Donald Trump. This year, that number rose to over 29%. While this might seem like a small increase, it translates to thousands more votes for Trump — about 44,000 more compared to 2016 and just over 9,000 more than in 2020.
“Travis County has been so blue for so long, to see the trend even a little bit reversed is certainly a signal that Republicans have done a really good job at motivating their base and executing their turnout strategy,” Rottinghaus said.
