A decision on Texas’ congressional map now before the U.S. Supreme Court could ultimately decide which party will hold control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm election.
The matter fell to SCOTUS earlier this week, after the state of Texas appealed a Tuesday decision by a federal court in El Paso to temporarily block a new map Texas Republicans pushed through the legislature this summer at the behest of President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott.
The three-judge panel ruled 2-1 that they had seen enough evidence to agree with plaintiffs that the new district map is racially gerrymandered. The state argues Texas’ redistricting was purely partisan, which is legal.
"Redistricting cases are special in that appeals like this go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court," said University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus. “That puts a lot of pressure on the Supreme Court to essentially step in here and to solve this problem for Republicans that, to a large degree, they've created for themselves."
While the federal court in El Paso handed a victory to the plaintiffs this week, until the Supreme Court rules on the state’s appeal, exactly who wins is still up in the air.
“The opinion was very carefully crafted to withstand scrutiny by the current Supreme Court,” Richard Murray, a University of Houston political scientist who was an expert witness in the case. “Justice [Jeffrey] Brown, the district court judge from Galveston who wrote the opinion, was extremely mindful that this is going to be reviewed by a court, the majority of which has said lately that ‘We don’t like explicit racial appeals in redistricting cases.’”
What’s next for Texas’ redistricting battle
So, what happens now? There are a few routes the court could take, all with different outcomes.
The state of Texas’ appeal goes directly to Justice Samuel Alito, a conservative justice who handles emergency petitions to SCOTUS from Texas. Alito is empowered to make a decision on his own or involve the rest of the court.
“The better and fairer practice has been to bring the whole court in on very important issues like this one that could have such national import,” said Gary Bledsoe, president of the Texas NAACP and one of the lawyers challenging the states’ new map in court. Ultimately, though, that decision rests with Alito.
Specifically, what SCOTUS is deciding on is whether or not to agree with the federal court ruling out of El Paso, technically called a “preliminary injunction” on the new congressional map.
The nation’s highest court could agree with this week’s federal decision, meaning Texas couldn’t use its new map in next year’s midterms and would have to revert to its 2021 map. However, the court could also rule against the preliminary injunction, putting the 2025 map into effect.
Those two outcomes could be done the quickest. There’s urgency here because Texas candidates for Congress are facing a Dec. 8 filing deadline for next year’s election. In cases like that of Democratic U.S. House Rep. Al Green of Houston, which map is in effect for 2026, would determine which district he could run in. For Austin Congressman Lloyd Doggett, also a Democrat, it could mean the difference between whether he runs for reelection or retires.
The Supreme Court could also issue an emergency order without explanation, often called the “shadow docket.” Another option, which would take much longer, would be the Supreme Court taking up the full case on its own — something that could take months.
Finally, there are ways Gov. Abbott and Republicans could get around the courts. While unlikely, Abbott could technically call another special session on redistricting where he directs the Texas Legislature to pass an entirely new map (which could, in turn, be blocked again by the courts).
