Austin-Bergstrom International Airport may have dodged the Federal Aviation Administration's list of 40 airports where flights will be cut because of the ongoing government shutdown, but aviation industry experts say travelers here are still likely to feel the fallout.
The FAA has ordered airlines to reduce flight schedules by up to 10% at major U.S. airports starting Friday, citing safety concerns as more air traffic controllers call in sick while their pay is suspended.
"We are starting to see some evidence that that fatigue is building in the [air traffic control] system," FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said at a press briefing Wednesday. "If the pressures continue to build, even after we take these measures, we'll come back and take additional measures."
Airlines will have to cut flights at each of the 40 airports by 4% Friday, increasing to 5% Saturday, 6% Sunday and reaching 10% next week, Reuters reported.
The FAA has not published the list of affected airports or confirmed to KUT News that Austin is not on the list. But four Texas airports: Dallas/Fort Worth International, Dallas Love, George Bush Intercontinental in Houston and Houston Hobby are on the list as reported by ABC News and CBS News.
Even if Austin is spared a direct order to reduce flights, the effects of sudden cancellations will ripple across the nation.
"What is going on is government-induced chaos on the U.S. air transportation system. The airlines had no idea this was coming," said Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research, a travel industry market research firm.
"Even if your airport is not on the list ... your airport will see flight reductions because of the nature of the airlines integrated hub-and-spoke air transportation system," he said.
That "hub-and-spoke" system connects mid-sized airports like Austin's to larger hub airports where passengers transfer flights to reach their destination. When flights are trimmed at those hubs, the effects quickly spread to the airports that feed into them.
"If you can postpone your trip, I would recommend you do so," Harteveldt said.
Airlines said they are complying with the FAA's order while trying to minimize disruptions. All emphasized that most flights will still operate. International or hub-to-hub routes are not expected to be affected.
Southwest Airlines, which accounts for about 44% of passengers flying out of Austin, said it is still evaluating how the FAA order will affect flight schedules. Customers with tickets booked through Nov. 12 can change their travel plans at no cost or receive a refund, regardless of whether their flight is affected.
Delta, which has the second-largest presence at ABIA, said customers traveling "through the impacted markets during the impacted travel period" can cancel or refund flights without penalty.
American and United both said customers can cancel flights and get a refund without being penalized.
Discount airline Frontier said customers whose flights are canceled or delayed more than three hours can rebook or request a refund.
"Unfortunately, the traveling public is being put in the position of being a hostage in this campaign," said Robert W. Mann Jr., a former airline executive who now runs an airline industry analysis firm. "Even if you do receive a refund, going out and trying to find a replacement flight is undoubtedly going to be more expensive. And in some cases, simply not possible."
Whether or not Austin ultimately ends up on a list of airports forced to trim flights, ABIA's control tower is already stretched thin. KUT News has previously reported the Austin tower only has about 30 fully certified controllers. Staffing targets agreed upon by the FAA and the controllers' union call for 60.
For years, Austin's controllers have worked six-day work weeks, rotating through day and night shifts under mandatory overtime rules. Now, they are doing this work without pay.
The agency also recently denied a request by Austin's FAA team to upgrade ABIA's airspace classification, a change that would have granted controllers more authority to direct planes and automatically triggered at 15% pay boost, helping with retention and morale.
Austin's controller shortage forced the FAA to slow the pace of arriving flights at least three times since Oct. 13 in a procedure known as a "ground delay." As recently as Monday, the FAA went so far as issuing a ground stop, temporarily preventing flights bound for Austin from taking off.
The FAA is at least 2,000 controllers short, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Wednesday, a gap that has pushed many facilities to their limits. That shortage has left the system so fragile that cutting flights, while painful for passengers, may be safer than loading even more pressure onto the controllers who remain on the job without pay.
"Under the current conditions when one controller is often asked to do the job designed for two controllers, it is just that much more difficult," said Clint Oster, a professor emeritus at Indiana University who studies aviation policy. "If Congress isn't going to do their job, I think that cutting back service is preferable to the safety risks of trying to maintain the same level of service with fewer air traffic controllers."
